Flash player 8 market penetration

i’m creating a small website for a client that will use a little bit of flash in the header/banner area of the site. i was thinking this project would be a good opportutnity for me to start learning flash 8. however, i’m a bit concerned that only “early addopters” who’ve upgraded to the new player will be able to see the flash parts of the site! the site wont go live for another few weeks yet, but if i’m not sure if i should use flash 8 to develop it, or maybe go back and use an earlier version of flash.

a few FYI’s: the budget and restrictions on the site are pretty much set in stone. flash on the main page. NO splash pages with links to the newest player, and NO links on the main site to download the newest player. i’m still pretty new to flash, so figuring out how to create a fancy player detection script is likely going to take me too much time, and is not accounted for in the budget.

so, any guesses on how long it will be till “most” people have the newest player installed?